FX Daily Strategy February 22nd, 2012

February 22, 2012 By

Time is 05:35

Intraday Confluence Zones:

EUR/USD: 1.3135 – 1.3195 {Bullish Bias}
AUD/USD: 1.0665 – 1.0705 {Bearish Bias}
GBP/USD: 1.5805 – 1.5845 {Bearish Bias}
EUR/JPY: 105.15 – 105.50 {Bullish Bias}

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EUR/USD: 1.3135 – 1.3195 {Bullish Bias}

Our preference: LONG positions within 1.3135 – 1.3195 on bullish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Comment: EUR/USD is moving in consolidation mode. Hourly stochastic has crossed up.

AUD/USD: 1.0665 – 1.0705 {Bearish Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 1.0665 – 1.0705 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Comment: AUD/USD remains under pressure. Watch the level of 1.0680 (50% Fibonacci).

GBP/USD: 1.5805 – 1.5845 {Bearish Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 1.5805 – 1.5845 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Comment: GBP/USD currently is under pressure. Watch the level of 1.5822 (50% Fibonacci).

EUR/JPY: 105.15 – 105.50 {Bullish Bias}

Our preference: LONG positions within 105.15 – 105.50 on bullish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Comment: EUR/JPY currently is in consolidation mode. Hourly stochastic is overbought. Watch for a break of yesterday’s high.

Filed Under: Daily FX Strategy

FX Daily Strategy February 21st, 2012

February 21, 2012 By

Time is 05:20 GMT

Intraday Confluence Zones:

EUR/USD: 1.3110 – 1.3170 {Bullish Bias}
AUD/USD: 1.0730 – 1.0770 {Bearish Bias}
GBP/USD: 1.5740 – 1.5795 {Bullish Bias}
EUR/JPY: 103.50 – 104.25 {Bullish Bias}

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EUR/USD: 1.3110 – 1.3170 {Bullish Bias}

Our preference: LONG positions within 1.3110 – 1.3170 on bullish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Comment: EUR/USD is still pushing higher. Hourly RSI is turning down.

AUD/USD: 1.0730 – 1.0770 {Bearish Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 1.0730 – 1.0770 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Comment: AUD/USD currently is under pressure. Watch the level of 1.0747 (50% Fibonacci).

GBP/USD: 1.5740 – 1.5795 {Bullish Bias}

Our preference: LONG positions within 1.5740 – 1.5795 on bullish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Comment: Correction occurs on GBP/USD. Hourly stochastic has crossed up. Watch the level of 1.5767 (50% Fibonacci).

EUR/JPY: 103.50 – 104.25 {Bullish Bias}

Our preference: LONG positions within 103.50 – 104.25 on bullish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Comment: EUR/JPY is testing the resistance at 105.97. Hourly stochastic and RSI are mixed.

Filed Under: Daily FX Strategy

Gold, Silver & Oil Weekly Analysis

February 20, 2012 By

Time is 07:07 GMT

GOLD

Gold price remains moving in a minor down channel. As we can see on the 4 hours chart, the price is testing the channel’s upper line and the resistance at 1736.21 at the same time. Stochastic and CCI are overbought on the 4 hours chart. Even though the stochastic previously crossed down, but it has moved up again and hovering around the overbought area.

Our preference is short to the support at 1706.06, especially if bearish signals recur on the 4 hours stochastic and CCI. Lowest target is the channel’s lower line for this week. However, the bearish scenario will fail if the channel’s upper line breaks. It means that the resistance at 1736.21 also breaks. In that case, the mid-term bias will turn to bullish with the next resistance at 1763.16 as the next target.

SILVER

The mid-term bias is bearish for silver as the price managed to hit the level of 32.64 last week. The stochastic has crossed up on the 4 hours chart, therefore the pullback move might extend to the resistance at 33.78 where we will be looking for bearish signal to go short to the support at 33.08. If this support breaks, the bearish move could extend to the next support at 32.64.

The bearish scenario mentioned above will fail if the resistance at 33.78 breaks. In that case, silver might be pushed up to the next resistance at 34.49 this week.

OIL

The mid-term bias is strongly bullish for crude oil. At the time this article was written, the price is testing the resistance at 105.53. Acceleration above this resistance possibly will be followed by extended bullish move to the range 107.47 – 109.65.

However, we will be watching the 4 hours stochastic and CCI since they have been moving in the overbought area for two days. Any valid bearish signals from both of the indicators is likely to be followed by a correction to the range 100.44 – 102.39. This range is our confluence zone to look for bullish setup to go long. However, use care if the support at 100.44 breaks as it will turn the bias to bearish.

Filed Under: Gold & Oil

FX Daily Strategy February 20th, 2012

February 20, 2012 By

Time is 05:00 GMT

Intraday Confluence Zones:

EUR/USD: 1.3075 – 1.3135 {Bullish Bias}
AUD/USD: 1.0710 – 1.0750 {Bullish Bias}
GBP/USD: 1.5740 – 1.5795 {Bullish Bias}
EUR/JPY: 103.50 – 104.25 {Bullish Bias}

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EUR/USD: 1.3075 – 1.3135 {Bullish Bias}

Our preference: LONG positions within 1.3075 – 1.3135 on bullish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Comment: EUR/USD was opened higher with a gap. Hourly stochastic is crossing down.

AUD/USD: 1.0710 – 1.0750 {Bullish Bias}

Our preference: LONG positions within 1.0710 – 1.0750 on bullish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Comment: AUD/USD remains supported by a rising trendline. Hourly stochastic is crossing down.

GBP/USD: 1.5740 – 1.5795 {Bullish Bias}

Our preference: LONG positions within 1.5740 – 1.5795 on bullish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Comment: GBP/USD is was opened higher with a gap. Hourly stochastic is overbought. Watch for a break of the resistance at 1.5878.

EUR/JPY: 103.50 – 104.25 {Bullish Bias}

Our preference: LONG positions within 103.50 – 104.25 on bullish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Comment: Intraday bias remains bullish for EUR/JPY. Hourly stochastic and RSI have crossed down.

Filed Under: Daily FX Strategy

FX Daily Strategy February 17th, 2012

February 17, 2012 By

Time is 06:15 GMT

Intraday Confluence Zones:

EUR/USD: 1.3040 – 1.3090 {Bullish Bias}
AUD/USD: 1.0700 – 1.0740 {Bullish Bias}
GBP/USD: 1.5715 – 1.5765 {Bullish Bias}
EUR/JPY: 103.20 – 102.70 {Bullish Bias}

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EUR/USD: 1.3040 – 1.3090 {Bullish Bias}

Our preference: LONG positions within 1.3040 – 1.3090 on bullish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Comment: EUR/USD has broken its negative trendline. Hourly stochastic is moving downwards.

AUD/USD: 1.0700 – 1.0740 {Bullish Bias}

Our preference: LONG positions within 1.0700 – 1.0740 on bullish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Comment: AUD/USD is pushing higher. 20 MA has crossed above 50 MA on the hourly chart.

GBP/USD: 1.5715 – 1.5765 {Bullish Bias}

Our preference: LONG positions within 1.5715 – 1.5765 on bullish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Comment: GBP/USD has broken its negative trendline. Hourly stochastic has crossed down.

EUR/JPY: 103.20 – 102.70 {Bullish Bias}

Our preference: LONG positions within 103.20 – 102.70 on bullish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Comment: EUR/JPY currently is pushing higher. Hourly stochastic and RSI have crossed down.

Filed Under: Daily FX Strategy

FX Daily Strategy February 16th, 2012

February 16, 2012 By

Time is 05:30 GMT

Intraday Confluence Zones:

EUR/USD: 1.3075 – 1.3125 {Bearish Bias}
AUD/USD: 1.0685 – 1.0725 {Neutral Bias}
GBP/USD: 1.5690 – 1.5740 {Bearish Bias}
EUR/JPY: 102.55 – 102.90 {Bearish Bias}

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EUR/USD: 1.3075 – 1.3125 {Bearish Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 1.3075 – 1.3125 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Comment: EUR/USD remains under pressure, the negative trendline remains intact. Hourly stochastic and RSI are oversold.

AUD/USD: 1.0685 – 1.0725 {Neutral Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 1.0685 – 1.0725 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario: LONG positions within 1.0700 – 1.0745 on a continuation pattern confirmation with well directed RSI.

Comment: AUD/USD currently is moving within the confluence zone. Hourly stochastic and RSI are mixed.

GBP/USD: 1.5690 – 1.5740 {Bearish Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 1.5690 – 1.5740 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Comment: GBP/USD remains capped by negative trendline. Hourly stochastic is oversold.

EUR/JPY: 102.55 – 102.90 {Bearish Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 102.55 – 102.90 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Comment: EUR/JPY currently is under pressure. Hourly stochastic is oversold.

Filed Under: Daily FX Strategy

FX Daily Strategy February 15th, 2012

February 15, 2012 By

Time is 05:15 GMT

Intraday Confluence Zones:

EUR/USD: 1.3130 – 1.3180 {Neutral Bias}
AUD/USD: 1.0700 – 1.0745 {Neutral Bias}
GBP/USD: 1.5690 – 1.5740 {Bearish Bias}
EUR/JPY: 102.45 – 102.85 {Bullish Bias}

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EUR/USD: 1.3130 – 1.3180 {Neutral Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 1.3130 – 1.3180 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alernative scenario: LONG positions within 1.3130 – 1.3180 on a continuation pattern confirmation with well directed RSI.

Comment: EUR/USD has pulled back to the negative trendline. Hourly stochastic is overbought.

AUD/USD: 1.0700 – 1.0745 {Neutral Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 1.0700 – 1.0745 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario: LONG positions within 1.0700 – 1.0745 on a continuation pattern confirmation with well directed RSI.

Comment: AUD/USD is testing its negative trendline. Hourly stochastic is overbought.

GBP/USD: 1.5690 – 1.5740 {Bearish Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 1.5690 – 1.5740 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Comment: GBP/USD remains capped by negative trendline. Hourly stochastic is overbought.

EUR/JPY: 102.45 – 102.85 {Bullish Bias}

Our preference: LONG positions within 102.45 – 102.85 on bullish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Comment: EUR/JPY currently is pushing higher. Hourly stochastic and RSI are overbought.

Filed Under: Daily FX Strategy

FX Daily Strategy February 14th, 2012

February 14, 2012 By

Time is 05:35 GMT

Intraday Confluence Zones:

EUR/USD: 1.3190 – 1.3230 {Bearish Bias}
AUD/USD: 1.0710 – 1.0755 {Bearish Bias}
GBP/USD: 1.5730 – 1.5780 {Bearish Bias}
EUR/JPY: 102.20 – 102.65 {Bearish Bias}

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EUR/USD: 1.3190 – 1.3230 {Bearish Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 1.3190 – 1.3230 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Comment: EUR/USD currently is under pressure. Hourly stochastic is oversold. RSI is moving upwards.

AUD/USD: 1.0710 – 1.0755 {Bearish Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 1.0710 – 1.0755 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Comment: AUD/USD remains capped by a negative trendline. Hourly stochastic is oversold.

GBP/USD: 1.5730 – 1.5780 {Bearish Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 1.5730 – 1.5780 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Comment: GBP/USD remains capped by negative trendline. Hourly stochastic and RSI are oversold.

EUR/JPY: 102.20 – 102.65 {Bearish Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 102.20 – 102.65 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Comment: EUR/JPY currently is under pressure. Hourly stochastic is overbought.

Filed Under: Daily FX Strategy

Gold, Silver & Oil Weekly Analysis

February 13, 2012 By

Time is 06:55 GMT

GOLD

Gold price is moving in a minor down channel as we can see on the 4 hours chart. Next move is expected to be bullish to the channel’s upper line as stohastic and CCI remains moving upward on the 4 hours chart. Anyhow, we might see a drop to the channel’s lower line if the support at 1719.53 breaks.

Bullish momentum should be re-triggered if the channle’s upper line breaks. In that scenario, the gold price is expected to rise to re-test the resistance at 1763.16. Further, acceleration above that resistance possibly will push the gold price up to the range 1790.11 – 1820.27.

SILVER

Silver price currently is moving sideways as we can see on the 4 hour schart so our mid-term bias is neutral. Initial resistance is at 34.49 where our mod-term target is, while the initial support is at 33.02.

We will be wathcing both of the support and resistance lines. Acceleration above the resistance should turn the bias to bullish to the range 35.19 – 35.97. On the contrary, a break of the support at 33.02 will turn the mid-term bias to bearish with the next support at 31.54 as the target.

OIL

Oil price has pulld back and currently is testing the resistance at 99.89. We have overbought stochastic on the 4 hours chart and we will be watching whether there will be any bearish signals from the stochastic and CCI before the resistance at 99.89 breaks. In tha scenario, the oil possibly will slip to the support at 97.66.

On the contrary, wathc for a break of the resistance at 99.89. In that case, oil price probably will rise to the next resistance at 101.27. Further, a break of the second resistance possibly will push the oil price higher up to the range 102.65 – 14.19.

Filed Under: Gold & Oil

FX Daily Strategy February 13th, 2012

February 13, 2012 By

Time is 06:05 GMT

General comment:

USD has gapped lower as we start the trading week, Athens has passed their austerity bill which appears to be adding some risk appetite… Nikkei and Shanghai Comp are trading higher.  We could see some consolidation over the next few days so use care, however our bias remains for further USD losses to resume.

Japan’s finance minister said on Friday that he would “make appropriate decision at appropriate times on my own”, Japan appears to be willing to make unilateral moves to weaken their currency if necessary.  EUR/JPY appears poised for further gains… watch for a break of 103.15 and then the 103.28 high.

Intraday Confluence Zones:

EUR/USD: 1.3220 – 1.3260 {Neutral Bias}
AUD/USD: 1.0710 – 1.0755 {Bearish Bias}
GBP/USD: 1.5775 – 1.5815 {Bearish Bias}
EUR/JPY: 102.20 – 102.65 {Bullish Bias}

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EUR/USD: 1.3220 – 1.3260 {Neutral Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 1.3220 – 1.3260 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario: LONG positions within 1.3220 – 1.3260 on continuation pattern with well directed RSI.

Comment: EUR/USD has pulled ack into the confluence zones. Hourly stochastic is overbought.

AUD/USD: 1.0710 – 1.0755 {Bearish Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 1.0710 – 1.0755 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Comment: AUD/USD has pulled back into the confluence zone. Hourly stochastic is overbought.

GBP/USD: 1.5775 – 1.5815 {Bearish Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 1.5775 – 1.5815 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Comment: GBP/USD is capped by negative trendline. Hourly stochastic is overbought.

EUR/JPY: 102.20 – 102.65 {Bullish Bias}

Our preference: LONG positions within 102.20 – 102.65  on bullish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Comment: EUR/JPY has broken its rising trendline, but still supported by 102.20. Hourly stochastic is overbought.

Filed Under: Daily FX Strategy
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