FX Daily Strategy May 8th, 2012

Time is 05:10 GMT

Intraday Confluence Zones:

EUR/USD : 1.3045 – 1.3095 {Bearish Bias}
AUD/USD : 1.0195 – 1.0240 {Bearish Bias}
GBP/USD : 1.6150 – 1.6185 {Neutral Bias}
EUR/JPY : 104.25 – 104.65 {Bearish Bias}

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EUR/USD: 1.3045 – 1.3095 {Bearish Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 1.3045 – 1.3095 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario: LONG positions on break of 1.3095 on continuation pattern with well directed RSI.

Comment: A pullback move occurs on EUR/USD. Hourly stochastic is oversold. Watch the level of 1.3066 (50% Fibonacci).

AUD/USD: 1.0195 – 1.0240 {Bearish Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 1.0195 – 1.0240 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario: LONG positions on break of 1.0240 on continuation pattern with well directed RSI.

Comment: A pullback occurs on AUD/USD, however the general bias remains bearish. Hourly stochastic is oversold.

GBP/USD: 1.6150 – 1.6185 {Neutral Bias}

Our preference: LONG positions within 1.6150 – 1.6185 on bullish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario: SHORT positions on break of 1.6150 on continuation pattern with well directed RSI.

Comment: GBP/USD is pushing higher. Hourly stochastic is oversold. 20 MA has crossed above 50 MA on the hourly chart.

EUR/JPY: 104.25 – 104.65 {Bearish Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 104.25 – 104.65 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario: LONG positions on break of 104.65 on continuation pattern with well directed RSI.

Comment: EUR/JPY has pulled back to the confluence zone. Hourly stochastic is oversold.

FX Daily Strategy May 7th, 2012

Time is 04:55 GMT

Intraday Confluence Zones:

EUR/USD : 1.3040 – 1.3090 {Bearish Bias}
AUD/USD : 1.0195 – 1.0250 {Bearish Bias}
GBP/USD : 1.6150 – 1.6185 {Bearish Bias}
EUR/JPY : 104.65 – 105.20 {Bearish Bias}

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EUR/USD: 1.3040 – 1.3090 {Bearish Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 1.3040 – 1.3090 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario: LONG positions on break of 1.3090 on continuation pattern with well directed RSI.

Comment: EUR/USD currently is under heavy pressure. Hourly stochastic has crossed up, RSI is oversold.

AUD/USD: 1.0195 – 1.0250 {Bearish Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 1.0195 – 1.0250 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario: LONG positions on break of 1.0250 on continuation pattern with well directed RSI.

Comment: AUD/USD is under heavy pressure. Hourly stochastic is almost overbought. Watch the falling trendline area.

GBP/USD: 1.6150 – 1.6185 {Bearish Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 1.6150 – 1.6185 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario: LONG positions on break of 1.6185 on continuation pattern with well directed RSI.

Comment: GBP/USD currently is under heavy pressure, capped by a negative trendline. Hourly stochastic has crossed up. Watch the level of 1.6165 (50% Fibonacci).

EUR/JPY: 104.65 – 105.20 {Bearish Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 104.65 – 105.20 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario: LONG positions on break of 105.20 on continuation pattern with well directed RSI.

Comment: EUR/JPY is under heavy pressure. Hourly RSI is oversold.

FX Daily Strategy May 4th, 2012

Time is 04:17 GMT

Intraday Confluence Zones:

EUR/USD : 1.3150 – 1.3190 {Neutral Bias}
AUD/USD : 1.0290 – 1.0335 {Bearish Bias}
GBP/USD : 1.6210 – 1.6245 {Bearish Bias}
EUR/JPY : 105.60 – 106.00 {Bearish Bias}

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EUR/USD: 1.3150 – 1.3190 {Neutral Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 1.3150 – 1.3190 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario: LONG positions on break of 1.3190 on continuation pattern with well directed RSI.

Comment: EUR/USD currently is in consolidation mode. Hourly stochastic is overbought.

AUD/USD: 1.0290 – 1.0335 {Bearish Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 1.0290 – 1.0335 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario: LONG positions on break of 1.0335 on continuation pattern with well directed RSI.

Comment: AUD/USD remains under pressure. Hourly stochastic has crossed down.

GBP/USD: 1.6210 – 1.6245 {Bearish Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 1.6210 – 1.6245 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario: LONG positions on break of 1.6245 on continuation pattern with well directed RSI.

Comment: GBP/USD is consolidating, however the general bias remains bearish. Hourly stochastic has crossed down. Watch the level of 1.6230 (50% Fibonacci).

EUR/JPY: 105.60 – 106.00 {Bearish Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 105.60 – 106.00 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario: LONG positions on break of 106.00 on continuation pattern with well directed RSI.

Comment: Some whipsaw move on EUR/JPY yesterday. Hourly stochastic an RSI are mixed. Watch the level of 105.84 (50% Fibonacci).

Daily FX Strategy May 3rd, 2012

Time is 04:50 GMT

Intraday Confluence Zones:

EUR/USD : 1.3165 – 1.3205 {Bearish Bias}
AUD/USD : 1.0340 – 1.0380 {Bearish Bias}
GBP/USD : 1.6210 – 1.6245 {Bearish Bias}
EUR/JPY : 105.60 – 106.00 {Bearish Bias}

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EUR/USD: 1.3165 – 1.3205 {Bearish Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 1.3165 – 1.3205 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario: LONG positions on break of 1.3205 on continuation pattern with well directed RSI.

Comment: EUR/USD currently is under heavy pressure. Hourly stochastic has crossed up. Watch the level of 1.3183 (50% Fibonacci).

AUD/USD: 1.0340 – 1.0380 {Bearish Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 1.0340 – 1.0380 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario: LONG positions on break of 1.0380 on continuation pattern with well directed RSI.

Comment: AUD/USD remains under pressure. Hourly stochastic has crossed up. Watch the level of 1.0358 (50% Fibonacci).

GBP/USD: 1.6210 – 1.6245 {Bearish Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 1.6210 – 1.6245 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario: LONG positions on break of 1.6245 on continuation pattern with well directed RSI.

Comment: GBP/USD currently is under pressure. Hourly stochastic has crossed up. Watch the level of 1.6230 (50% Fibonacci).

EUR/JPY: 105.60 – 106.00 {Bearish Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 105.60 – 106.00 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario: LONG positions on break of 106.00 on continuation pattern with well directed RSI.

Comment: EUR/JPY is back under pressure. Hourly stochastic an RSI are mixed. Watch the level of 105.84 (50% Fibonacci).

Gold, Silver & Oil Weekly Analysis

Time is 05:05 GMT

GOLD

Gold’s rebound hit the resistance at 1666.57. As we can see on the 4-hours chart, this resistance apparently is a strong one. We might see a correction back to the support at 1651.55 this week. However, 4-hours stochastic and CCI are approaching the oversold area. Therefore, the correction might be halted at 1651.55. A break of this support could be followed by deeper correction to the next support at 1636.53.

Keep an eye on the resistance at 1666.57, because a break of it may re-trigger the bullish momentum and gold possibly will rise to the next resistance at 1680.00.

SILVER

The silver price is moving in consolidation mode. The rebound from the support at 29.97 is halted at the resistance at 31.23. Note that the resistance apparently is 50% Fibonacci level, so it should be considered as an important resistance besides the fact that it is also a strong one. Meanwhile, stochastic is approaching the oversold area.

So here is the scenario: another pullback move is possible to re-test the resistance at 31.23. If bearish signal or pattern appear before the resistance breaks then the silver possibly will weaken again. The objective should be the support area at the range 29.97 – 30.45. On the contrary, the bearish scenario will fail on break of the resistance at 31.23. In that case, silver possibly will rise up to the range 32.01 – 32.56.

OIL

Crude oil currently is in an upward trajectory. We have a resistance at 106.40, stochastic and CCI are overbought. As the matter of fact, those indicators are moving downwards. Therefore, there could be a correction to the support at 105.31 or the accelerating trendline (dashed trendline). This correction might be extended to the next support at 104.10, which is also the 50% Fibonacci level. For longer term, we can say that the major trend will remain bullish as long as the major trendline or support at 102.89 intact. Therefore, our preference is to look for bullish setups around those support levels in order to take long positions. Use care if the support at 102.89 breaks because the bias might turn to bearish in that scenario.

FX Daily Strategy May 2nd, 2012

Time is 04:18 GMT

Intraday Confluence Zones:

EUR/USD : 1.3200 – 1.3240 {Neutral Bias}
AUD/USD : 1.0350 – 1.0395 {Bearish Bias}
GBP/USD : 1.6205 – 1.6250 {Neutral Bias}
EUR/JPY : 106.15 – 106.55 {Bearish Bias}

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EUR/USD: 1.3200 – 1.3240 {Neutral Bias}

Our preference: LONG positions within 1.3200 – 1.3240 on bullish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario: SHORT positions on break of 1.3200 on continuation pattern with well directed RSI.

Comment: EUR/USD remains supported by 1.3200 despite the heavy pressure. Hourly stochastic is crossing up.

AUD/USD: 1.0350 – 1.0395 {Bearish Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 1.0350 – 1.0395 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario: LONG positions on break of 1.0395 on continuation pattern with well directed RSI.

Comment: AUD/USD remains under pressure. Hourly stochastic is overbought. Watch the level of 1.0368 (50% Fibonacci).

GBP/USD: 1.6205 – 1.6250 {Neutral Bias}

Our preference: LONG positions within 1.6205 – 1.6250 bullish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario: SHORT positions on break of 1.6205 on continuation pattern with well directed RSI.

Comment: GBP/USD remains consolidating. Hourly stochastic and RSI are mixed.

EUR/JPY: 106.15 – 106.55 {Bearish Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 106.15 – 106.55 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario: LONG positions on break of 106.55 on continuation pattern with well directed RSI.

Comment: EUR/JPY has pullled up. Hourly stochastic an RSI are mixed. Note that 20 MA has crossed above 50 MA on hourly chart.

FX Daily Strategy May 1st, 2012

Time is 05:05 GMT

Intraday Confluence Zones:

EUR/USD : 1.3200 – 1.3235 {Bullish Bias}
AUD/USD : 1.0395 – 1.0435 {Bearish Bias}
GBP/USD : 1.6205 – 1.6250 {Neutral Bias}
EUR/JPY : 105.95 – 106.45 {Bearish Bias}

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EUR/USD: 1.3200 – 1.3235 {Bullish Bias}

Our preference: LONG positions within 1.3200 – 1.3235 on bullish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario: SHORT positions on break of 1.3200 on continuation pattern with well directed RSI.

Comment: EUR/USD currently is consolidating. Hourly stochastic is overbought.

AUD/USD: 1.0395 – 1.0435 {Bearish Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 1.0395 – 1.0435 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario: LONG positions on break of 1.0435 on continuation pattern with well directed RSI.

Comment: AUD/USD has broken its rising trendline, currently is under heavy pressure. Hourly stochastic and RSI are oversold. Watch for a break of 1.0331.

GBP/USD: 1.6205 – 1.6250 {Neutral Bias}

Our preference: LONG positions within 1.6205 – 1.6250 on bullish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario: SHORT positions on break of 1.6205 on continuation pattern with well directed RSI.

Comment: GBP/USD is consolidating. Hourly stochastic is oversold. Note the dark cloud cover pattern on the daily chart.

EUR/JPY: 105.95 – 106.45 {Bearish Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 105.95 – 106.45 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario: LONG positions on break of 106.45 on continuation pattern with well directed RSI.

Comment: EUR/JPY remains under pressure. Hourly stochastic an RSI are mixed.

FX Daily Strategy April 30th, 2012

Time is 05:30 GMT

Intraday Confluence Zones:

EUR/USD : 1.3200 – 1.3235 {Bullish Bias}
AUD/USD : 1.0395 – 1.0435 {Bullish Bias}
GBP/USD : 1.6185 – 1.6235 {Bullish Bias}
EUR/JPY : 106.40 – 106.95 {Bearish Bias}

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EUR/USD: 1.3200 – 1.3235 {Bullish Bias}

Our preference: LONG positions within 1.3200 – 1.3235 on bullish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario #1: LONG positions on break of 1.3270 on bullish flag pattern confirmation.

Alternative scenario #2: SHORT positions on break of 1.3200 on continuation pattern with well directed RSI.

Comment: EUR/USD is potential to form a bullish flag pattern on hourly chart. 20 MA is about to cross 50 MA on hourly chart. Hourly stochastic is overbought.

AUD/USD: 1.0395 – 1.0435 {Bullish Bias}

Our preference: LONG positions within 1.0395 – 1.0435 on bullish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario: SHORT positions on break of 1.0395 on continuation pattern with well directed RSI.

Comment: AUD/USD remains supported by a rising trendline. Hourly stochastic has crossed up. Watch the trendline area and the level of 1.0413 (50% Fibonacci).

GBP/USD: 1.6185 – 1.6235 {Bullish Bias}

Our preference: LONG positions within 1.6185 – 1.6235 on bullish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario: SHORT positions on break of 1.6185 on continuation pattern with well directed RSI.

Comment: GBP/USD currently is an upward trajectory. Hourly stochastic and RSI are overbought. Watch the level of 1.6221 (50% Fibonacci).

EUR/JPY: 106.40 – 106.95 {Bearish Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 106.40 – 106.95 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario: LONG positions on break of 106.95 on continuation pattern with well directed RSI.

Comment: EUR/JPY currently is under pressure. Hourly stochastic has crossed up. Watch the level of 106.76 (50% Fibonacci).

FX Daily Strategy April 27th, 2012

Time is 05:05 GMT

Intraday Confluence Zones:

EUR/USD : 1.3170 – 1.3205 {Neutral Bias}
AUD/USD : 1.0320 – 1.0360 {Bullish Bias}
GBP/USD : 1.6140 – 1.6175 {Bullish Bias}
EUR/JPY : 106.80 – 107.15 {Neutral Bias}

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EUR/USD: 1.3170 – 1.3205 {Neutral Bias}

Our preference: LONG positions within 1.3170 – 1.3205 on bullish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario: SHORT positions on break of 1.3170 on continuation pattern with well directed RSI.

Comment: EUR/USD has broken its rising trendline. 20 MA is about to cross 50 MA on hourly chart.

AUD/USD: 1.0320 – 1.0360 {Bullish Bias}

Our preference: LONG positions within 1.0320 – 1.0360 on bullish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario: SHORT positions on break of 1.0320 on continuation pattern with well directed RSI.

Comment: AUD/USD remasin in an upward trajectory. Hourly stochastic is approaching overbought area.

GBP/USD: 1.6140 – 1.6175 {Bullish Bias}

Our preference: LONG positions within 1.6140 – 1.6175 on bullish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario: SHORT positions on break of 1.6140 on continuation pattern with well directed RSI.

Comment: GBP/USD currently is in consolidation mode. Hourly stochastic has crossed down.

EUR/JPY: 106.80 – 107.15 {Neutral Bias}

Our preference: LONG positions within 106.80 – 107.15 on bullish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario: SHORT positions on break of 106.80 on continuation pattern with well directed RSI.

Comment: EUR/JPY rebounds. Watch the level of 106.97 (50% Fibonacci).

FX Daily Strategy April 26th, 2012

Time is 05:50 GMT

Intraday Confluence Zones:

EUR/USD : 1.3170 – 1.3205 {Bullish Bias}
AUD/USD : 1.0310 – 1.0350 {Bullish Bias}
GBP/USD : 1.6125 – 1.6160 {Bullish Bias}
EUR/JPY : 106.80 – 107.15 {Bullish Bias}

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EUR/USD: 1.3170 – 1.3205 {Bullish Bias}

Our preference: LONG positions within 1.3170 – 1.3205 on bullish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario: SHORT positions on break of 1.3170 on continuation pattern with well directed RSI.

Comment: EUR/USD is remains supported by a rising trendline. Hourly stochastic and RSI are mixed.

AUD/USD: 1.0310 – 1.0350 {Bullish Bias}

Our preference: SHORT positions within 1.0310 – 1.0350 on bearish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario: LONG positions on break of 1.0350 on continuation pattern with well directed RSI.

Comment: AUD/USD currently is moving in an upward tracjetory. Hourly stochastic is overbought.

GBP/USD: 1.6125 – 1.6160 {Bullish Bias}

Our preference: LONG positions within 1.6125 – 1.6160 on bullish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario #1: LONG position on confirmed break of the resistance at 1.6182.

Alternative scenario #2: SHORT positions on break of 1.6110 on continuation pattern with well directed RSI.

Comment: GBP/USD rebounds. Potential bullish falling wedge is seen on hourly chart. Hourly stochastic has crossed up.

EUR/JPY: 106.80 – 107.15 {Bullish Bias}

Our preference: LONG positions within 106.80 – 107.15 on bullish pattern/candlestick confirmation with divergence.

Alternative scenario: SHORT positions on break of 106.80 on continuation pattern with well directed RSI.

Comment: EUR/JPY currently is in consolidating mode. Hourly stochastic has crossed up. Watch the level of 106.98 (50% Fibonacci).